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Natural Gas Price Outlook: What to Expect from Now Through Next Year
Meta title: Natural Gas Price Forecast: U.S., Europe, and Asia Outlook for 2025–2026
Meta description: Natural gas drives energy costs worldwide. Here’s a clear breakdown of where prices are now, how supply and demand look, and what could push prices up or down in the next year.
Natural Gas Right Now
- U.S. (Henry Hub): Around $3.00 per unit (MMBtu) today. The futures market — basically Wall Street’s betting line — says prices should average around $3.70 over the next year.
- Europe (TTF): About €32 per megawatt-hour (that’s roughly $11 per unit in U.S. terms). Winter prices are only a touch higher, around €33–34, which tells you traders think Europe is well-supplied — unless a cold snap or pipeline problem hits.
- Asia (JKM): About $11–12 per unit for shipments headed to Japan, Korea, and China this winter.
Why Prices Move the Way They Do
Think of natural gas like a giant balancing act between storage, supply, demand, and weather:
- Storage = the pantry.
- The U.S. has about 6% more gas stored than its 5-year average heading into winter.
- Europe is ~76% full already and legally required to hit 90% by November. That’s why winter prices aren’t spiking yet — the pantry looks healthy.
- Supply = the factory.
- The U.S. pumps out about 107 billion cubic feet per day of dry gas. That’s record-setting.
- Europe depends on Norway, LNG imports, and a trickle of Russian flows. Norway is doing heavy maintenance right now, which temporarily crimps supply.
- Demand = the eaters.
- In the U.S., power plants, homes, and factories burn gas directly. Exports of LNG (liquefied natural gas) now take a huge bite, about 16 Bcf/day.
- Farmers in Asia and Europe buy LNG to keep the lights on when coal or renewables aren’t enough.
- Weather = the wildcard.
- Cold winters = furnaces roar, prices spike.
- Warm winters = storage stays full, prices sink.
- This winter has a La Niña watch, which sometimes means a colder north and warmer south in the U.S., but confidence is low.
What the Market Thinks for the Next Year
Here’s what the futures curve and government forecasts are signaling (in plain English):
- United States: Expect gas to hover around $3–4 for most of the year, with winter possibly spiking to $4.50 or even $5 if it gets very cold. If it’s mild? Prices could stay near $3.00.
- Europe: Likely range €28–45 through winter. If Norway’s maintenance runs long or Russia cuts more LNG, prices could briefly rocket to €60–75. On a mild winter, they could slide back to €25–30.
- Asia: Most of the time $10–12; could dip to $8–9 in shoulder seasons or jump to $14–16 if there’s a cold shock or shipping disruption.
What Could Push Prices Higher
- A cold winter in the U.S. or Europe.
- Norway outages dragging on.
- Hurricanes hitting U.S. gas fields or LNG plants.
- Geopolitical shocks that mess with shipping or supply (Middle East tensions, new EU sanctions, etc.).
What Could Push Prices Lower
- A warm winter that keeps demand soft.
- Extra LNG supply coming online from the U.S. and Qatar faster than expected.
- U.S. production staying higher for longer, even as companies talk about pulling back.
Bottom Line for Readers
Natural gas prices over the next year aren’t likely to crash or explode unless the weather or geopolitics throw a curveball. The U.S. is sitting on strong storage and production, Europe has stocked up early, and Asia has steady LNG flows lined up.
The base case:
- U.S. averages around $3.50–$4.00.
- Europe stays in the €30–40 zone.
- Asia keeps bouncing between $10–12.
But remember: one cold snap, one storm, or one geopolitical blow-up can change the picture overnight. Natural gas is steady — until suddenly it isn’t.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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