Thoughts

Things have been weird. It doesn’t even feel like money is real anymore. Three trillion here, a hundred billion there; we have gotten too comfortable with these astronomically high numbers. Does anyone else feel this way? From the stimulus packages that the current administration is pushing to industry-wide company valuations growing more than their actual revenues, things are changing. As much as I would want to tout total clarity of everything that is going on in the market, I can confidently say I cannot. From meme stocks soaring then cratering, to the mystery asset class called Bitcoin, it would be a gross falsehood to say that things are “business as usual”.

While on the surface the market seems to be acting somewhat rationally, I think there is a lot more going on. A hedge fund manager doing an interview with Bloomberg analogized the market to a calm body of water that on the surface was calm and clear, but when you go under that surface there is a lot at play. The markets have been chugging along for a while, but it seems like things are slowing down to an imminent grinding halt—a painful one at that.

I hesitate to even watch any sort of business channel or market news on TV because everyone has their own agendas. It is pretty safe to say that the information we get from the “experts” is not completely impartial. What I have found is that if it isn’t on the front page of Fox Business, it is worth taking a look at. There is a lot of conflicting information (which is the main reason I created Macrohint.com) and people investing in the stock market or considering investing deserve to get as much unbiased market data as possible.

History repeats itself

The market we are living through right now seems eerily similar to that of ’07 and ’08; the music is playing, and everything is going well and then the music stops. This is in part caused by the recent rush of stimulus checks, causing households and investors of all walks of life to pour their money into the market at an alarmingly rapid rate. The combination of high stock prices and stimulus checks arriving in your bank account is dangerous.

I feel the need to also mention that history is screaming that we are due for a correction (and likely a big one). Regardless of what pundits say, the recession timeline is historically reliable; the problem is that we have been waiting for a while now. It is only a matter of time before the tide turns. As an oversimplification, it’s all good until it’s not.

Moving forward

Needless to say, there is a lot of “incentive” to put your money in the stock market when it keeps going up but I believe that the old adage applies now more than ever; the bigger they are, the harder they fall. I personally am leery in putting much of my own money in the market right now and have even put aside a small amount in buying silver (in no way am I advising anyone on how to allocate their money—I am merely expressing my personal opinion).

Overall, I am not writing this for any sort of personal gain. I am writing this because I am passionate about studying the markets and identifying trends that affect everything from the Dow to the price of food at your local grocery store. People deemed “stock whizzes” or the industry “experts” have been horribly wrong before, causing people to lose their entire life savings.

 I think that people should be setting aside a safety net large enough to combat what lies ahead in the future. One of my favorite pieces of advice that I have gotten is to only invest what you can afford to lose.

If you have any questions or thoughts please feel free to reach out by emailing macrohint@protonmail.com or fill out the form on our Contact page.

Stay informed and take the hint