What LKQ Corp Would Be Worth in a Buyout (And Who Should Want to Buy It)

Why a $12–15B takeover suddenly looks very real.

If there’s one sleeper asset in the U.S. auto ecosystem that’s almost guaranteed to draw buyout attention in 2026, it’s LKQ Corp (NASDAQ: LKQ)—a global distributor of aftermarket and recycled automotive parts that quietly throws off close to a billion dollars in free cash flow per year.

The company is cheap, it’s undergoing a board-authorized strategic review, and an activist is openly pushing for a sale. That combination almost always ends the same way: either a breakup… or a buyer stepping in with a premium.

Below is the objective, data-driven valuation of what LKQ would command in an acquisition today—plus which companies are the most realistic strategic buyers, a sum-of-parts valuation, an LBO IRR grid, and antitrust considerations.

LKQ’s Financial Foundation: What a Buyer Would Get on Day 1

LKQ enters 2026 with fundamentals that make it unusually attractive for M&A:

2024 revenue: $14.4B
2024 free cash flow: ~$0.8B
2024 adjusted EPS: $3.48
Leverage: ~2.3× (credit definition)
Share price: ~$33.80
Enterprise value: ~$10–10.5B
LTM EV/EBITDA: ~7.5×
LTM P/E: ~12×

The biggest tell?
FCF yield at today’s quote is ~9%. That’s textbook take-private territory.

And the board isn’t waiting for the market to wake up—the company launched a strategic review that explicitly includes a full-company sale. Self-Service is already sold ($410M), and Specialty (Keystone) is being shopped (~$1B). Activist investor Ananym Capital is pushing for more.

This isn’t hypothetical. It’s happening.

What LKQ Is Worth in a Full Takeout: The Objective Math

Let’s anchor to conservative inputs:

EBITDA: ~$1.35B
Net debt: ~$1.4B
Shares: ~256M

Implied share price by EV/EBITDA multiple

Multiple	Share Price	Premium
8×	~$36–37	~9%
9×	~$42	~24%
10×	~$47	~40%
11×	~$52.5	~56%
12×	~$58	~71%

Fair private-market value: $42–52 per share

That corresponds to 9–11× EBITDA, or a $12–15B enterprise value.

Anything below $40 is a gift to the buyer given the activist + strategic review pressure.

Why LKQ Is a Buyout Magnet

LKQ checks every box large buyers want:

Recession-resistant demand
Massive distribution footprint that’s nearly impossible to replicate
High FCF conversion
Meaningful synergy potential (procurement, logistics, warehouses)
Europe margins that are fixable under a more aggressive operator

This is one of the few “platform-ready” industrial assets still trading at a value multiple.

Who Would (and Should) Want to Buy LKQ

1. Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC)

GPC trades at ~12× EBITDA and could buy LKQ at 9–10× while still enjoying:

immediate accretion
Europe scale synergies
procurement leverage
route density optimization

Likelihood: High.

2. Mega-fund Private Equity (Blackstone, Apollo, Brookfield, KKR)

LKQ is classic LBO material:

predictable demand
low capex
room for 4–5× leverage
synergy potential
portfolio breakup optionality

Likelihood: Very high.

3. Auto Retailers (AutoZone, O’Reilly)

Large, but strategically messy. They could do it, but the recycling + Europe mix is a mismatch. Still, consolidation would be enormous.

Likelihood: Low–medium.

4. European Distributors / Industrials

LKQ gives them instant U.S. scale and a parts-recycling footprint they can’t recreate.

Likelihood: Medium.

Sum-of-Parts Valuation: What LKQ Is Worth Broken Up

Breaking LKQ into its core segments yields upper-bound valuations.

1. North America (Aftermarket Parts)

EBITDA estimate: ~$900M
Market multiple: 9–11×
Value: $8.1–9.9B

2. Europe

EBITDA: ~$350M
Discount multiple due to slower growth: 6–8×
Value: $2.1–2.8B

3. Specialty (Keystone)

Rumored sale valuation: ~$1B
We use: $0.9–1.1B

4. Other / Recycling

EBITDA: ~$100–125M
Multiple: 7–8×
Value: $0.7–1.0B

Total SOTP equity value

$11.8B – $14.8B EV → $44–55/share

This lines up perfectly with the $42–52 real-world takeout range.
If anything, SOTP suggests the top end could push slightly above $52 in a competitive process.

LBO Model Grid: What Private Equity Sees

Assume:

Entry multiple: 9–10×
Leverage: 4.0–4.5× debt/EBITDA
Exit multiple: 8.5–10×
FCF: $0.75–0.9B/year
Holding period: 5 years

LBO IRR Matrix (Base Case)

Entry / Exit	8.5× Exit	9.5× Exit	10× Exit
9× entry	~13–14% IRR	~16–17% IRR	~18–19% IRR
10× entry	~10–11% IRR	~13–14% IRR	~15–16% IRR

Private equity wants mid-teens IRRs.
That means:

9× entry = yes
10× = yes, if synergies or divestitures hit
11× requires either an aggressive breakup or major cost cuts

This is why the 9–10× range ($42–47/share) is almost mathematically perfect for PE.

Antitrust Considerations: Who Can Actually Buy LKQ

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

Risk: Medium

Some overlap in U.S. distribution, but markets are fragmented.
Europe is additive, not anti-competitive.
DOJ could require divestitures in specific cities/regions.

Approval likely with structural remedies.

AutoZone / O’Reilly

Risk: High

These are national category killers.
Buying LKQ’s North American distribution network would materially raise concentration in certain markets.
Recycling operations are less of a concern, but parts distribution overlap is meaningful.

Would face heavy DOJ scrutiny; not impossible, but tough.

Private Equity

Risk: Low

PE rollups are rarely blocked unless they combine overlapping assets.
Cleanest path to approval.

This is why private equity is arguably the most probable acquirer.

European Distributors

Risk: Low–Medium

Minimal U.S. overlap
EU approval straightforward
U.S. approval depends on regional warehouse overlap but generally manageable

Bottom Line: LKQ’s Private-Market Value Is Hiding in Plain Sight

LKQ combines:

undervalued cash flow
a global distribution footprint
already-in-motion divestitures
activist pressure
a formal strategic review
and real multi-billion-dollar synergy potential

Put all of that together and you get:

LKQ’s objective buyout value is $42–52 per share
—with a sum-of-parts case that stretches slightly above that.

This is one of the most actionable large-cap M&A candidates in the U.S. industrial space.

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and reflects publicly available data as of publication. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a prediction of future performance. Always conduct independent research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

MACROHINT

MACROHINT

What LKQ Corp Would Be Worth in a Buyout (And Who Should Want to Buy It)